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银行业的2018:资管新规、零售转型和不良压力

????今年是银行业负重前行的一年,监管加强、不良暴露、资本补充,银行业在政策面和基本面的双重影响下艰难转型。站在2018年底,不妨对银行业这一年进行总结:今年发生了哪些重量级事件?都产生了怎样的影响?资管新规实施今年影响银行业的最重大事件,无疑是资管新规的发布。首先,资管新规限制了理财承接非标的能力,导致表外非标规模出现快速收缩。从社会融资规模就可以看出,今年表外的委托贷款和信托贷款出现了明显的负增长。今年前11月,委托贷款存量规模减少1.4万亿元,信托贷款规模减少0.6万亿元。融资到期无法续作导致企业现金流面临断裂的可能,违约风险逐步加大。随后,政策出现微调,去杠杆变成稳杠杆,央行也明确金融机构可以发行老产品对接新资产,从而有利于理财产品平稳过渡。其次,在表外资产回表的过程中,银行资本补充压力巨大。资管新规限制了银行表外理财承接非标的能力,部分非标开始转成表内信贷,但这一过程需要消耗大量的资本,因为表外并不占用资本,但表内面临各种监管。根据Wind统计,截至12月中旬,今年银行业增发规模1000亿元、优先股融资1325亿元、可转债融资230亿元,加上3家银行IPO融资80亿元,银行业今年股票市场总融资2600亿元,远超2017年的1100亿元。最后,理财规模收缩导致银行体系创设存款产品的动力增强。资管新规实施使得理财向净值化、独立运作方向转型,保本理财逐步退出市场,银行创设高收益存款产品的动力增强,比如今年结构性存款产品发行量逐步加大(参见图1)。展望2019年,理财产品净值化可能不会一帆风顺。由于银行擅长的领域还在货币市场和债券市场,因此净值化理财的战略重点有望继续围绕这两个市场展开。可惜今年债券市场是大牛市,目前10年国债的估值为3.34%,历史最低估值为2.67%,可见债市继续走牛的空间已经不大。因此,如果2019年开始发行净值化债券市场理财产品,可能无法实现用户满意的收益率。零售银行转型随着经济从投资驱动逐步向消费驱动转型,银行体系也逐步向零售银行转型,以适应经济结构的变化。零售银行转型的第一步就是加大信用卡信贷投放力度。2018年前三季度,信用卡授信总额增长18%,达到14.69万亿元,继续维持较高增速;信用卡人均持卡量达到0.47张,增长21%。扩张信用卡业务,银行主要有三大利器:一是降低信用卡的门槛,这意味着信用卡资质的下沉;二是打造信用卡的消费场景,向线上要流量,信用卡APP也逐步向生活服务类APP转变,生活场景和金融服务高度融合;三是充分挖掘集团的资源,或是和大型平台合作发行联名卡。零售银行转型还表现在做大消费金融和经营贷款上。消费金融方面,银行最大的优势是资金成本低,通过自建消费金融公司、搭建网上商城或者与现有平台合作,银行发力消费金融的效果较为明显。除了信用卡分期外,汽车、教育、装修、房租等是目前消费金融的典型场景。与此同时,今年银行业的另一个转变是适度控制按揭规模,发展经营贷款。今年前10月,银行新增按揭贷款规模1.94万亿元,相比2017年前10月1.96万亿元的新增规模来说,略有下降;但今年前10月新增个人经营贷款0.99万亿元,相比2017年10月0.58万亿元的新增规模,提升幅度较大。可见在按揭贷款规模难以继续放量的环境下,个人经营贷款成为银行的主要发力点(参见图2)。展望2019年,零售银行市场依旧广阔,但面临监管和不良的约束。目前,我国信用卡人均持卡量0.47张,远低于美国和韩国的人均2-3张水平,从这个角度来看,零售银行仍有较大的发展潜力,而银行也在逐步加大对大数据和金融科技的投入,强化零售银行的软实力。但另一方面,网传的《商业银行互联网管理办法(征求意见稿)》对银行发展跨省的线上消费金融业务提出限制,而互联网金融公司逾期率的抬升也对银行提出预警。不良风险暴露银行体系不良风险暴露,既受企业和居民违约风险抬升的影响,又受政策层面对银行充分暴露不良鼓励的影响。今年3季度,银行不良率已经从2017年底的1.74%反弹至1.87%,而今年有9家银行主体评级被调低,山东成为重灾区,不良率飙升是银行评级被下调的主因。值得注意的是:企业不良的原因逐步从现金流断裂转向经营压力。表外非标续作难度加大,使得企业部门现金流断裂的风险逐步暴露,今年共有111只信用债出现违约,涉及金额高达1100亿元,远超2017年的340亿元水平。另外,部分高杠杆上市公司的股票质押风险,成为今年下半年政策的重点关注点。而随着经济下行压力有所加大,海外订单下降和国内经济需求疲软或成为下一阶段企业不良暴露的主因。居民信用卡不良正在抬头,按揭质量也存隐忧。随着信用卡发卡量和授信总额快速提升,信用卡不良率也触底反弹。行业层面来看,信用卡逾期半年占比已经从6月的1.21%上升至9月的1.34%,而上市互联网金融公司的逾期率已经普遍反弹至1.70%以上,比如今年3季度趣店M1+逾期率1.70%、宜人贷30-59天逾期率1.80%、拍拍贷30-59天逾期率1.77%。在居民杠杆率处在高位和就业形势可能发生波动的环境下,居民违约风险逐步加大,这也成为考验银行零售业务质量的试金石。另外,三四线城市房价调整压力,以及一二线高杠杆投资者的资金压力,也不断测试着按揭贷款的资产质量。历史来看,按揭贷款是银行各项贷款中资产质量最好的一类资产。但是,银行不断下沉按揭贷款城市层级,以及三四线城市房价调整压力,使得2019年按揭不良率存在一定的不确定性。统计下述A、B、C三家银行个人住房抵押贷款证券(RMBS)合同金额的城市分布,可以发现,三四线城市占比大约为30%左右,三家银行依次为29%、30%和36%(参见图3)。虽然资产池的城市分布不一定代表真实状况,但这一比例无疑具有一定的参考性。2018年在股市大幅调整的环境下,银行股取得了不错的相对收益,在各行业中跌幅最小。但随着资产质量成为市场的关注点,不良率的差异可能导致银行股表现出现分化。2019年哪家银行的风控实力最强,又有哪些银行在裸泳呢?让我们拭目以待!来源:苏宁财富资讯;作者:苏宁金融研究院研究员 左俊义

jin nian shi yin hang ye fu zhong qian xing de yi nian, jian guan jia qiang bu liang bao lu zi ben bu chong, yin hang ye zai zheng ce mian he ji ben mian di shuang chong ying xiang xia jian nan zhuan xing. zhan zai 2018 nian di, bu fang dui yin hang ye zhe yi nian jin xing zong jie: jin nian fa sheng le nei xie zhong liang ji shi jian? dou chan sheng le zen yang de ying xiang? zi guan xin gui shi shi jin nian ying xiang yin hang ye de zui zhong da shi jian, wu yi shi zi guan xin gui de fa bu. shou xian, zi guan xin gui xian zhi le li cai cheng jie fei biao di neng li, dao zhi biao wai fei biao gui mo chu xian kuai su shou suo. cong she hui rong zi gui mo jiu ke yi kan chu, jin nian biao wai de wei tuo dai kuan he xin tuo dai kuan chu xian le ming xian de fu zeng zhang. jin nian qian 11 yue, wei tuo dai kuan cun liang gui mo jian shao 1. 4 wan yi yuan, xin tuo dai kuan gui mo jian shao 0. 6 wan yi yuan. rong zi dao qi wu fa xu zuo dao zhi qi ye xian jin liu mian lin duan lie de ke neng, wei yue feng xian zhu bu jia da. sui hou, zheng ce chu xian wei tiao, qu gang gan bian cheng wen gang gan, yang hang ye ming que jin rong ji gou ke yi fa xing lao chan pin dui jie xin zi chan, cong er you li yu li cai chan pin ping wen guo du. qi ci, zai biao wai zi chan hui biao de guo cheng zhong, yin hang zi ben bu chong ya li ju da. zi guan xin gui xian zhi le yin hang biao wai li cai cheng jie fei biao di neng li, bu fen fei biao kai shi zhuan cheng biao nei xin dai, dan zhe yi guo cheng xu yao xiao hao da liang de zi ben, yin wei biao wai bing bu zhan yong zi ben, dan biao nei mian lin ge zhong jian guan. gen ju Wind tong ji, jie zhi 12 yue zhong xun, jin nian yin hang ye zeng fa gui mo 1000 yi yuan you xian gu rong zi 1325 yi yuan ke zhuan zhai rong zi 230 yi yuan, jia shang 3 jia yin hang IPO rong zi 80 yi yuan, yin hang ye jin nian gu piao shi chang zong rong zi 2600 yi yuan, yuan chao 2017 nian de 1100 yi yuan. zui hou, li cai gui mo shou suo dao zhi yin hang ti xi chuang she cun kuan chan pin de dong li zeng qiang. zi guan xin gui shi shi shi de li cai xiang jing zhi hua du li yun zuo fang xiang zhuan xing, bao ben li cai zhu bu tui chu shi chang, yin hang chuang she gao shou yi cun kuan chan pin de dong li zeng qiang, bi ru jin nian jie gou xing cun kuan chan pin fa xing liang zhu bu jia da can jian tu 1. zhan wang 2019 nian, li cai chan pin jing zhi hua ke neng bu hui yi fan feng shun. you yu yin hang shan chang de ling yu hai zai huo bi shi chang he zhai quan shi chang, yin ci jing zhi hua li cai de zhan lue zhong dian you wang ji xu wei rao zhe liang ge shi chang zhan kai. ke xi jin nian zhai quan shi chang shi da niu shi, mu qian 10 nian guo zhai de gu zhi wei 3. 34, li shi zui di gu zhi wei 2. 67, ke jian zhai shi ji xu zou niu de kong jian yi jing bu da. yin ci, ru guo 2019 nian kai shi fa xing jing zhi hua zhai quan shi chang li cai chan pin, ke neng wu fa shi xian yong hu man yi de shou yi lv. ling shou yin hang zhuan xing sui zhe jing ji cong tou zi qu dong zhu bu xiang xiao fei qu dong zhuan xing, yin hang ti xi ye zhu bu xiang ling shou yin hang zhuan xing, yi shi ying jing ji jie gou de bian hua. ling shou yin hang zhuan xing de di yi bu jiu shi jia da xin yong ka xin dai tou fang li du. 2018 nian qian san ji du, xin yong ka shou xin zong e zeng zhang 18, da dao 14. 69 wan yi yuan, ji xu wei chi jiao gao zeng su xin yong ka ren jun chi ka liang da dao 0. 47 zhang, zeng zhang 21. kuo zhang xin yong ka ye wu, yin hang zhu yao you san da li qi: yi shi jiang di xin yong ka de men kan, zhe yi wei zhe xin yong ka zi zhi di xia chen er shi da zao xin yong ka de xiao fei chang jing, xiang xian shang yao liu liang, xin yong ka APP ye zhu bu xiang sheng huo fu wu lei APP zhuan bian, sheng huo chang jing he jin rong fu wu gao du rong he san shi chong fen wa jue ji tuan de zi yuan, huo shi he da xing ping tai he zuo fa xing lian ming ka. ling shou yin hang zhuan xing hai biao xian zai zuo da xiao fei jin rong he jing ying dai kuan shang. xiao fei jin rong fang mian, yin hang zui da de you shi shi zi jin cheng ben di, tong guo zi jian xiao fei jin rong gong si da jian wang shang shang cheng huo zhe yu xian you ping tai he zuo, yin hang fa li xiao fei jin rong de xiao guo jiao wei ming xian. chu le xin yong ka fen qi wai, qi che jiao yu zhuang xiu fang zu deng shi mu qian xiao fei jin rong de dian xing chang jing. yu ci tong shi, jin nian yin hang ye de ling yi ge zhuan bian shi shi du kong zhi an jie gui mo, fa zhan jing ying dai kuan. jin nian qian 10 yue, yin hang xin zeng an jie dai kuan gui mo 1. 94 wan yi yuan, xiang bi 2017 nian qian 10 yue 1. 96 wan yi yuan de xin zeng gui mo lai shuo, lue you xia jiang dan jin nian qian 10 yue xin zeng ge ren jing ying dai kuan 0. 99 wan yi yuan, xiang bi 2017 nian 10 yue 0. 58 wan yi yuan de xin zeng gui mo, ti sheng fu du jiao da. ke jian zai an jie dai kuan gui mo nan yi ji xu fang liang de huan jing xia, ge ren jing ying dai kuan cheng wei yin hang de zhu yao fa li dian can jian tu 2. zhan wang 2019 nian, ling shou yin hang shi chang yi jiu guang kuo, dan mian lin jian guan he bu liang de yue shu. mu qian, wo guo xin yong ka ren jun chi ka liang 0. 47 zhang, yuan di yu mei guo he han guo de ren jun 23 zhang shui ping, cong zhe ge jiao du lai kan, ling shou yin hang reng you jiao da de fa zhan qian li, er yin hang ye zai zhu bu jia da dui da shu ju he jin rong ke ji de tou ru, qiang hua ling shou yin hang de ruan shi li. dan ling yi fang mian, wang chuan de shang ye yin hang hu lian wang guan li ban fa zheng qiu yi jian gao dui yin hang fa zhan kua sheng de xian shang xiao fei jin rong ye wu ti chu xian zhi, er hu lian wang jin rong gong si yu qi lv de tai sheng ye dui yin hang ti chu yu jing. bu liang feng xian bao lu yin hang ti xi bu liang feng xian bao lu, ji shou qi ye he ju min wei yue feng xian tai sheng de ying xiang, you shou zheng ce ceng mian dui yin hang chong fen bao lu bu liang gu li de ying xiang. jin nian 3 ji du, yin hang bu liang lv yi jing cong 2017 nian di de 1. 74 fan dan zhi 1. 87, er jin nian you 9 jia yin hang zhu ti ping ji bei diao di, shan dong cheng wei zhong zai qu, bu liang lv biao sheng shi yin hang ping ji bei xia diao de zhu yin. zhi de zhu yi de shi: qi ye bu liang de yuan yin zhu bu cong xian jin liu duan lie zhuan xiang jing ying ya li. biao wai fei biao xu zuo nan du jia da, shi de qi ye bu men xian jin liu duan lie de feng xian zhu bu bao lu, jin nian gong you 111 zhi xin yong zhai chu xian wei yue, she ji jin e gao da 1100 yi yuan, yuan chao 2017 nian de 340 yi yuan shui ping. ling wai, bu fen gao gang gan shang shi gong si de gu piao zhi ya feng xian, cheng wei jin nian xia ban nian zheng ce de zhong dian guan zhu dian. er sui zhe jing ji xia xing ya li you suo jia da, hai wai ding dan xia jiang he guo nei jing ji xu qiu pi ruan huo cheng wei xia yi jie duan qi ye bu liang bao lu de zhu yin. ju min xin yong ka bu liang zheng zai tai tou, an jie zhi liang ye cun yin you. sui zhe xin yong ka fa qia liang he shou xin zong e kuai su ti sheng, xin yong ka bu liang lv ye chu di fan dan. hang ye ceng mian lai kan, xin yong ka yu qi ban nian zhan bi yi jing cong 6 yue de 1. 21 shang sheng zhi 9 yue de 1. 34, er shang shi hu lian wang jin rong gong si de yu qi lv yi jing pu bian fan dan zhi 1. 70 yi shang, bi ru jin nian 3 ji du qu dian M1 yu qi lv 1. 70 yi ren dai 3059 tian yu qi lv 1. 80 pai pai dai 3059 tian yu qi lv 1. 77. zai ju min gang gan lv chu zai gao wei he jiu ye xing shi ke neng fa sheng bo dong de huan jing xia, ju min wei yue feng xian zhu bu jia da, zhe ye cheng wei kao yan yin hang ling shou ye wu zhi liang de shi jin shi. ling wai, san si xian cheng shi fang jia tiao zheng ya li, yi ji yi er xian gao gang gan tou zi zhe de zi jin ya li, ye bu duan ce shi zhe an jie dai kuan de zi chan zhi liang. li shi lai kan, an jie dai kuan shi yin hang ge xiang dai kuan zhong zi chan zhi liang zui hao de yi lei zi chan. dan shi, yin hang bu duan xia chen an jie dai kuan cheng shi ceng ji, yi ji san si xian cheng shi fang jia tiao zheng ya li, shi de 2019 nian an jie bu liang lv cun zai yi ding de bu que ding xing. tong ji xia shu A B C san jia yin hang ge ren zhu fang di ya dai kuan zheng quan RMBS he tong jin e de cheng shi fen bu, ke yi fa xian, san si xian cheng shi zhan bi da yue wei 30 zuo you, san jia yin hang yi ci wei 29 30 he 36 can jian tu 3. sui ran zi chan chi de cheng shi fen bu bu yi ding dai biao zhen shi zhuang kuang, dan zhe yi bi li wu yi ju you yi ding de can kao xing. 2018 nian zai gu shi da fu tiao zheng de huan jing xia, yin hang gu qu de liao bu cuo de xiang dui shou yi, zai ge hang ye zhong die fu zui xiao. dan sui zhe zi chan zhi liang cheng wei shi chang de guan zhu dian, bu liang lv de cha yi ke neng dao zhi yin hang gu biao xian chu xian fen hua. 2019 nian na jia yin hang de feng kong shi li zui qiang, you you nei xie yin hang zai luo yong ne? rang wo men shi mu yi dai! lai yuan: su ning cai fu zi xun zuo zhe: su ning jin rong yan jiu yuan yan jiu yuan zuo jun yi

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